The Unsinkable brian cork™

Brian Patrick Cork is living the Authentic Life

no more Apples

May23

if you read this blog, and many people do, you understand that I define Apple evangelist.

I am also a hearty and ferocious shareholder. that’s both fair disclosure, and fact.

that won’t change. but, my buying habits and recommendations for others certainly will.

details may or may not be important, but we finally have both a line-in-the-sand, and an indication that the end is near. and, by “end”, I mean using Apple’s stock to build wealth as most people might try to define that.

as I tap this blog post into life, Apple shares are trading at $334.40. that’s off it’s fifty two week high of $364.90. if you were buying Apple at $15 back in 2001, you can shrug $30 off. but, if you are planning to build a portfolio around that stock, I must, ironically, advise you to consider other factors.

I’m not a stock broker and not supposed to give advice. however, that disclaimer aside, I always have an opinion.

several months ago some analyst decided that Apple stock would eventually hit $1000, and probably inside the next seven years. I agreed with him (I’m thinking five years or less) and felt good about that. but, what I forgot, at that time, was how that information would affect insiders, sophisticated buyers and the types of people that can drive stocks shares up-and-down – not the least of which are institutional buyers.

once and long an analysts darling, there is now a psychology at work, if not a psychosis against Apple. the stock has consistently exceeded expectations yet has begun to languish as if it were, well, Google. A LOT of people that matter now comprehend that Apple shares will only roughly double in value in those five to seven years. up until now you could see one hundred to three hundred percent gains in a twenty month period, based on perceived volatility in other aspects of the market. but, many folks will think they can only double their money in seven years unless they try to time the peaks and valleys of an uncertain economic roller coster.

suddenly Apple isn’t as cool as it’s products. It’s much like Google. Working at either place won’t change your life financially unless you are a very senior executive. it took Google three years to drive itself into a share value rut. Apple’s story is awesome and sustained itself for almost thirty years. but, I think the joy ride is over (unless the stock splits).

that’s how I see it. I may be an evangelist, but I’m no hypocrite. I’ll probably always buy Apple products until someone makes something better (and, I am working with a fellow in Australia in doing just that). but, I doubt I’ll be dollar-cost averaging the stock any longer unless the price dumps because some other mercenary analyst tanks the stock simply to create a buying opportunity (which is what has happened three times over the past four years).

peace be to my Brothers and sisters.

brian patrick cork

posted under apple, Google, Truth | 2 Comments »

follow me, and apple

January14

I told Galvin about my expectations around Apple, Inc. and it’s stocks potential, and why. And, he told the world. I’ll remind you of that by pointing you to:  not what you were thinking.

Apple, Inc, apples stock, information, brian corkWhat did you do?

Then I gave you, all of you, fair (fair) warning with: how Verizon might spank Android.

Now, with the publishing of the story: Could Apple Hit $1,000?, in the venerable Wall Street Journal yesterday, it’s a reasonable bet, the market will drive you and Apple stock towards $1000.

What are you going to do, now?

Come on! Do it!

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

Brian Patrick Cork

…not what you were thinking

December28

The fact is most opportunities are not corollary to the obvious.

Ten years will come-and-go quickly. It already has, and it will do so, again. And, along the way, Apple’s stock could well hit one thousand dollars ($1,000.00). You can take my word for it. But, here is additional insight.

As Galvin makes his case, Apple’s revenues may triple in the next ten years. So, the stock could indeed hit $1000. But, the real play is not so obvious, and will likely be in the form of fiber optics – because that is what is needed to pipe the content. But, Data Centers will have their role as well. And, dudes like Bob Twitchell (big smarty pants genius that he is) will help lead the way with emerging technology that makes relative technology faster, more secure, and less costly.

Reactionary investment strategy like reading news briefs off MSN and Yahoo! will kill you. Whereas proactive research will build wealth. So… read between the lines from cross-referenced information. Think in terms of convergence. For example, “Apple”, “Video Anywhere”, “Fiber Optics”, “Data Centers”, and “Venture Capital”.

Follow the money BEFORE the thundering herds sort it out.

It’s about foundational thinking and strategy – relative technologies that make for great strategic partnerships. One element of the formula building off of another.

Now you owe me.

Soon… More insight into being a physical bad-ass at fifty, and great Margarita tips.

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

Brian Patrick Cork

General Motors ON

November16

It’s no secret that General Motors (“GM”) has it’s Initial Public Offering (“IPO”) this week.

What might be a secret to the masses, however, is it’s truest underlying purpose.

The government lent money to GM. There is some thinking that the government could own as much as sixty-one percent (61%) of GM. And, the big auto-maker, as leading and cutting-edge as it’s vehicles have become, will struggle for decades to pay our thinly stretched United States Treasury back – and, it does not have a prayer of meeting it’s pension obligations.

So, they, that insidious “they” (no doubt led by the pipe-smoking-black-dog), mind you, are going to foist the problem on the American Citizens the very best of the good old fashioned way, certainly time-honored… By manipulating the stock market.

Seriously.

Here is how this particular effort will play-out. You simply need to make the decision if you are going to benefit, or keep getting your collective asses kicked.

The IPO will likely open up around $28.00 a share. Insiders (by many a definition) will pay less. For example, the United States Treasury is going to own shares as will friends of the big brokerage houses. JP Morgan is the syndicate lead and they are making all manner of new friends on Capital Hill with this play. This is not widely publicized for obvious reasons.  In any event, based on the aforementioned loan details, the Treasury will break even when the stock hits approximately $44.00.

So, it’s a good bet the stock will do just that, and then some.

I’m guessing there will likely be close to a $6m billion over subscription of the stock leading up to the IPO. My experience tells me we’ll see about $1 billion in roiling. Then that “over-hang” of back-orders will kick the stock up. After that, it’s all about “management”.

This is not evil. This is simply the way things work. You, why not you, can argue it’s part of the American dream.

I have to say something. It’s one of the many reasons you read this Blog. And, it’s something a Prudent and Optimistic Gentleman finds, required.

Good luck. But, there is little of that actually involved. Fortuna, perhaps, eh Dr. Pappas?

UPDATE 11/17/2010 @ 1pm: VOILA! – GM Confirms Expanding IPO by 31 percent

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters

Brian Patrick Cork

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What’s All This About?

"What am I looking at?", you might wonder.

Lots of stuff.

Meanwhile, here, I discuss events, people and things in our world - and, my (hardly simplistic, albeit inarticulate) views around them.

You'll also learn things about, well, things, like people you need to know about, and information about companies you can't find anywhere else.

So, while I harangue the public in my not so gentle way, you will discover that I am fascinated by all things arcane, curious about those whom appear religious, love music, dabble in politics, loathe the media, value education, still think I am an athlete, and might offer a recipe.

All the while, striving mightily, and daily, to remain a prudent and optimistic gentleman - and, authentic.

brian cork by John Campbell





photos by John Campbell

 

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