The Unsinkable brian cork™

Brian Patrick Cork is living the Authentic Life

rotten for Apples

April16

Brian Patrick Cork

this is just bull-shit. tomfoolery.

Apple was pushed down in an manipulative manner. now, the same people realize they have made a huge blunder that never accounted for panic and access to fast negative trading in the form of “program” triggers that had more criteria developed into them than most analysts are aware of.

this means that you had traders, analysts and fund managers at cross-purposes. The stock fundamentally does not belong at its current level. but, now they understand they could harm the entire market much like a virus.

a vital clue is what has happened with gold and oil. that means there is growing unease with fundamentals.

Its all rather fascinating, really. Just unfortunate.

If Apple Breaks $419, the Stock Market Will Break – the street.com“How Apple goes will have a strong bearing on which way the stock market moves.”

peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

brian patrick cork

analysts and bloggers are such Rascals!

June27

so… personally, I just find this flat-out goofy. but, I acknowledge this is just how it all works.

Morgan Stanley Issues ‘Tactical Buy’ On Apple Valuation

today, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty issued a “tactical” buy recommendation on Apple (AAPL) shares.

“We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days,” she writes in a research note. “This is because the stock has traded off recently, making short term valuation much more compelling.”

to be clear… Apple’s stock took a short-term hit recently because analysts like Huberty made a fuss over production issues coming out of Japan just after the earthquakes.

but, now, she notes that post-Japan production constraints have eased, and adds with improved component supply, “Apple is negotiating price cuts with some suppliers,” potentially boosting margins for the June and September quarters.” Huberty adds that “after meetings in Taiwan last week, we expect Apple order cuts to ease and iPhone/iPad production to begin ramping aggressively from August through year-end.”

Huberty adds that “Apple’s next iPhone will begin production in mid to late August and ramp aggressively” into calendar Q4.

isn’t this obvious?

as a direct result, AAPL this morning is up $2.34, or 0.7%, to $328.69.

why am I blogging about this?

…mostly because I do believe most people don’t understand how this is part of a game.

I called Huberty, but I know she won’t return the courtesy. but, she’ll read about it all, here.

consider prior posts of mine if only for perspective: brian cork on those Wallstreet Rascals!, Outside of the insiders, and After Hours Trading.

years ago, David Sugarman, himself, taught me that you should buy a stock never expecting to sell it. Apple has always fit that frame of reference for me. and, I always know that when analysts (and, more-and-more so today, bloggers) attack a stock, even indirectly, we know it’s an effort to create room and a buying opportunity for their “bank”. an example, here, is that we all knew the production issues in Japan would be short-term. they would impede retail initiatives. but, there was never any reason for someone with anyone “long” on Apple to be concerned. and, as many of you know, I’m convinced that Apple is a thousand dollar (or the equivalent after splits) stock inside the next five years.

what will always insult my sense of fairness and justice is that authorities understand this is part of the game and allow it by not enforcing “tactical” information designed to mislead citizens.

thank God, most of the day traders proved Darwin correct several years ago.

peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

brian patrick cork

 

my Mom and Apple pie

June22

this reminds me of my Mom.

Mom was our family stock-picker (and, the very axis upon which our collective world revolved). sure enough, we owned Apple stock going back to it’s IPO. we also owned Hanes and Blockbuster, to name others – all of them making sense, in one form or another, to Mom.

when I was thinking about building a Tandy or Commodore PC over the summer of 1982 for college (I tended to obsess over neat papers and the like), Mom classically, if not presciently, said to me:

“sell some stock your Grandad left you and buy an Apple. It makes more sense, honey”.

Mom did some research, made calls and decided I needed an Apple Lisa (they were not even on the market before July of 1982) and then abruptly changed her mind for the Apple II Plus – mostly because the of the new Apple Dot Matrix Printer ($700). and, we had an early release of Apple Pie aka AppleWorks straight from Robert Lissner, himself. this set me back over ten thousand dollars. but, I worked that machine hard. I wrote hundreds of papers for fraternity brothers, lacrosse mates and other partners (it was easier than the moving company and bouncing at TJ’s Pub. before Mom left us in 1985 I had already upgraded to a “true” Macintosh. I wrote a farewell letter to Mom on it, and a poem for her funeral, I Bid You Adieu.

she never had the chance to read the letter, it’s unopened to this very day (although a part of it was made into a poem and read aloud at her funeral, attended by hundreds).

however, with every Apple I buy and use for family, business and charity (and, there have been hundreds), I think of Mom, her influence, and vision.

peace be to my Brothers and Sisters.

brian patrick cork

no more Apples

May23

if you read this blog, and many people do, you understand that I define Apple evangelist.

I am also a hearty and ferocious shareholder. that’s both fair disclosure, and fact.

that won’t change. but, my buying habits and recommendations for others certainly will.

details may or may not be important, but we finally have both a line-in-the-sand, and an indication that the end is near. and, by “end”, I mean using Apple’s stock to build wealth as most people might try to define that.

as I tap this blog post into life, Apple shares are trading at $334.40. that’s off it’s fifty two week high of $364.90. if you were buying Apple at $15 back in 2001, you can shrug $30 off. but, if you are planning to build a portfolio around that stock, I must, ironically, advise you to consider other factors.

I’m not a stock broker and not supposed to give advice. however, that disclaimer aside, I always have an opinion.

several months ago some analyst decided that Apple stock would eventually hit $1000, and probably inside the next seven years. I agreed with him (I’m thinking five years or less) and felt good about that. but, what I forgot, at that time, was how that information would affect insiders, sophisticated buyers and the types of people that can drive stocks shares up-and-down – not the least of which are institutional buyers.

once and long an analysts darling, there is now a psychology at work, if not a psychosis against Apple. the stock has consistently exceeded expectations yet has begun to languish as if it were, well, Google. A LOT of people that matter now comprehend that Apple shares will only roughly double in value in those five to seven years. up until now you could see one hundred to three hundred percent gains in a twenty month period, based on perceived volatility in other aspects of the market. but, many folks will think they can only double their money in seven years unless they try to time the peaks and valleys of an uncertain economic roller coster.

suddenly Apple isn’t as cool as it’s products. It’s much like Google. Working at either place won’t change your life financially unless you are a very senior executive. it took Google three years to drive itself into a share value rut. Apple’s story is awesome and sustained itself for almost thirty years. but, I think the joy ride is over (unless the stock splits).

that’s how I see it. I may be an evangelist, but I’m no hypocrite. I’ll probably always buy Apple products until someone makes something better (and, I am working with a fellow in Australia in doing just that). but, I doubt I’ll be dollar-cost averaging the stock any longer unless the price dumps because some other mercenary analyst tanks the stock simply to create a buying opportunity (which is what has happened three times over the past four years).

peace be to my Brothers and sisters.

brian patrick cork

posted under apple, Google, Truth | 2 Comments »
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What’s All This About?

"What am I looking at?", you might wonder.

Lots of stuff.

Meanwhile, here, I discuss events, people and things in our world - and, my (hardly simplistic, albeit inarticulate) views around them.

You'll also learn things about, well, things, like people you need to know about, and information about companies you can't find anywhere else.

So, while I harangue the public in my not so gentle way, you will discover that I am fascinated by all things arcane, curious about those whom appear religious, love music, dabble in politics, loathe the media, value education, still think I am an athlete, and might offer a recipe.

All the while, striving mightily, and daily, to remain a prudent and optimistic gentleman - and, authentic.

brian cork by John Campbell





photos by John Campbell

 

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