if you read this blog, and many people do, you understand that I define Apple evangelist.
I am also a hearty and ferocious shareholder. that’s both fair disclosure, and fact.
that won’t change. but, my buying habits and recommendations for others certainly will.
details may or may not be important, but we finally have both a line-in-the-sand, and an indication that the end is near. and, by “end”, I mean using Apple’s stock to build wealth as most people might try to define that.
as I tap this blog post into life, Apple shares are trading at $334.40. that’s off it’s fifty two week high of $364.90. if you were buying Apple at $15 back in 2001, you can shrug $30 off. but, if you are planning to build a portfolio around that stock, I must, ironically, advise you to consider other factors.
I’m not a stock broker and not supposed to give advice. however, that disclaimer aside, I always have an opinion.
several months ago some analyst decided that Apple stock would eventually hit $1000, and probably inside the next seven years. I agreed with him (I’m thinking five years or less) and felt good about that. but, what I forgot, at that time, was how that information would affect insiders, sophisticated buyers and the types of people that can drive stocks shares up-and-down – not the least of which are institutional buyers.
once and long an analysts darling, there is now a psychology at work, if not a psychosis against Apple. the stock has consistently exceeded expectations yet has begun to languish as if it were, well, Google. A LOT of people that matter now comprehend that Apple shares will only roughly double in value in those five to seven years. up until now you could see one hundred to three hundred percent gains in a twenty month period, based on perceived volatility in other aspects of the market. but, many folks will think they can only double their money in seven years unless they try to time the peaks and valleys of an uncertain economic roller coster.
suddenly Apple isn’t as cool as it’s products. It’s much like Google. Working at either place won’t change your life financially unless you are a very senior executive. it took Google three years to drive itself into a share value rut. Apple’s story is awesome and sustained itself for almost thirty years. but, I think the joy ride is over (unless the stock splits).
that’s how I see it. I may be an evangelist, but I’m no hypocrite. I’ll probably always buy Apple products until someone makes something better (and, I am working with a fellow in Australia in doing just that). but, I doubt I’ll be dollar-cost averaging the stock any longer unless the price dumps because some other mercenary analyst tanks the stock simply to create a buying opportunity (which is what has happened three times over the past four years).
peace be to my Brothers and sisters.
brian patrick cork