The Unsinkable brian cork™

Brian Patrick Cork is living the Authentic Life

General Motors ON

November16

It’s no secret that General Motors (“GM”) has it’s Initial Public Offering (“IPO”) this week.

What might be a secret to the masses, however, is it’s truest underlying purpose.

The government lent money to GM. There is some thinking that the government could own as much as sixty-one percent (61%) of GM. And, the big auto-maker, as leading and cutting-edge as it’s vehicles have become, will struggle for decades to pay our thinly stretched United States Treasury back – and, it does not have a prayer of meeting it’s pension obligations.

So, they, that insidious “they” (no doubt led by the pipe-smoking-black-dog), mind you, are going to foist the problem on the American Citizens the very best of the good old fashioned way, certainly time-honored… By manipulating the stock market.

Seriously.

Here is how this particular effort will play-out. You simply need to make the decision if you are going to benefit, or keep getting your collective asses kicked.

The IPO will likely open up around $28.00 a share. Insiders (by many a definition) will pay less. For example, the United States Treasury is going to own shares as will friends of the big brokerage houses. JP Morgan is the syndicate lead and they are making all manner of new friends on Capital Hill with this play. This is not widely publicized for obvious reasons.  In any event, based on the aforementioned loan details, the Treasury will break even when the stock hits approximately $44.00.

So, it’s a good bet the stock will do just that, and then some.

I’m guessing there will likely be close to a $6m billion over subscription of the stock leading up to the IPO. My experience tells me we’ll see about $1 billion in roiling. Then that “over-hang” of back-orders will kick the stock up. After that, it’s all about “management”.

This is not evil. This is simply the way things work. You, why not you, can argue it’s part of the American dream.

I have to say something. It’s one of the many reasons you read this Blog. And, it’s something a Prudent and Optimistic Gentleman finds, required.

Good luck. But, there is little of that actually involved. Fortuna, perhaps, eh Dr. Pappas?

UPDATE 11/17/2010 @ 1pm: VOILA! – GM Confirms Expanding IPO by 31 percent

Peace be to my Brothers and Sisters

Brian Patrick Cork

4 Comments to

“General Motors ON”

  1. Avatar November 16th, 2010 at 9:31 am Jeff Hunter Says:

    So, as a “POG”, what’s your thoughts on the timing of the ‘Treasury Payback Event’… Months? Years? Weeks? Or even days? Seems like in order for the Treasure to get what they want (I keep having pictures of Glenn’s little video with the buckets of cash), it would ‘flush’ quickly, then fall just as fast…to what the market is willing to trade at long term…somewhere around the strike price… sorry, a little RNG thinking… 😉

    By the way, congrats on your teams efforts this weekend! You’re a good dad…and coach…


  2. Avatar November 16th, 2010 at 11:42 am Brian Patrick Cork Says:

    Hello Jeff!

    The stock price is already “maturing” as the word gets out. That is actually touting by the wire houses and syndicates. I’m confident there will be a lack of compliance and oversight by regulators through this. So, a lot of little guys are going to be buying that stock once its on the market. And, insiders are going to sell into that market. Then as the price falls, they start the second round of touting and buy it up from the floor/ bottom again. All of this will play itself out well inside six months. But, look for heavy action inside forty five and sixty days, if not twenty days. It really depend on what the “roiling” does relative to that magic $57 -$58 number. I wonder, myself, what disclosure will ook like as the treasuries ownership in GM declines concurrent with the sale of stock to replenish government coffers.

    If I could make a wish and know it would be granted, it would be for the treasury to hold on to that stock as a sign of confidence. But, given the fact that the next big story is the hideous drop in commercial real estate that is coming, the fed and the banks are going to need to horde cash – and, a lot of it.

    It’s hard knowing this because the information is, ironically, disempowering. I know that the government is acting in a way that is best for government, but no for the people. It’s not ironic that this is precisely how Obama see’s, well, everything.

    Long term, GM might not be a bad stock to own. But, here is food for thought… You don’t see Buffet saying much about the situation, do you. That’s a two-point statement, and not a question.

    Cork


  3. Avatar November 17th, 2010 at 11:10 am Brian Patrick Cork Says:

    I’m guessing there will likely be close to a $6m billion over subscription of the stock leading up to the IPO. My experience tells me we’ll see about $1 billion in roiling. Then that “over-hang” of back-orders will kick the stock up. After that, it’s all about “management”.

    Cork


  4. Avatar November 17th, 2010 at 1:06 pm Told Ya « The Unsinkable brian cork Says:

    […] See yesterdays post: General Motors On […]


Email will not be published

Website example

Your Comment:

What’s All This About?

"What am I looking at?", you might wonder.

Lots of stuff.

Meanwhile, here, I discuss events, people and things in our world - and, my (hardly simplistic, albeit inarticulate) views around them.

You'll also learn things about, well, things, like people you need to know about, and information about companies you can't find anywhere else.

So, while I harangue the public in my not so gentle way, you will discover that I am fascinated by all things arcane, curious about those whom appear religious, love music, dabble in politics, loathe the media, value education, still think I am an athlete, and might offer a recipe.

All the while, striving mightily, and daily, to remain a prudent and optimistic gentleman - and, authentic.

brian cork by John Campbell





photos by John Campbell

 

Share this Blog with friends or enemies (via Twitter). Do it!:

Twitter Updates

Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.

Archives

Email Subscription

Linkedin

View Brian Cork's profile on LinkedIn

Categories



%d bloggers like this: